Climate Change: By Two Major
Naval Wars
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Shipping is a significant source of global warming since screw-driven vessels
have been introduced around 1850!!
Cover Edition 2012
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C9.
Finally on the first war winter a.
Factors
& non-factors The
decade before WWII had been the warmest in For
someone who regards weather and climate as the blue print of the ocean,
would have no serious problem to link the sudden turn-around to
extreme winter conditions since the last months of 1939 to man’s
activities in the marine environment. Seeing this correlation is not well established. This
will be discussed below in reference to other aspects and thus the
chapter about the first war winter of WWII will be completed. b. From one autumn to the next It
happens quite frequently. One winter is not the same as the other, and
the difference between one and the next can be significant. As already
mentioned the people at that time had gotten used to the fact that the
winters became warmer and warmer (Drummond,
1942), and the old type of winter had gone forever. Even Scherhag
(1939b) who was presumably the only one who had expected the return of
colder winter because of the increase in sunspot activity, predicted:
"Anyway,
we can conclude that the maximum temperature must be achieved in this
decade before a gradual increase in the frequency of severe winters
can be expected." However,
in his paper on the "big circulation disorder in 1940”
published 12 years later, he attributes this “disorder” to sunspot
activities without any facts, consideration or explanation (Scherhag,
1951). As he had observed that “the
entire polar region was covered by an extremely high air pressure to
such an extent in January 1940” (C5, p. 73), one wonders whether
he knew that the polar region is sunless during the winter season.
What
we know for sure is that the immediate years prior to WWI had been
some of the warmest, TM1, TM2 (p. 5 & p.15). While the Northern
Hemisphere (NH) indicates well above normal conditions, the Southern
Hemisphere was close to normal. The two temperature maps TM6 and TM7
(p. 69 & 93) give an overview of the temperature throughout the
winter half year 1939/40. The
4th quarter of 1939 deviated significantly from the
pervious year, with the exception of November 1939 (TM6). The pounced
colder regions over North America and The
excerpts
for the months Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec 1939 (TM6) reveal that Sept., Oct.,
and Dec. already indicated
for Europe below-average temperatures, while November 1939 appears to
be above average, confirmed by national reports in For further considerations
concerning the change from warm to cold in winter 1939/40 see: __TM1
(Page 5 ) showing the average winter temperatures (Dec/Jan/Feb) for • the winter of 1939/40 as
compared to the winter of 1938-39, and • the 1934-1939 winters compared
to the winters of 1940-1945. __TM3 (Page 25) shows combined temperature conditions for the three war
years 1940, 1941 and 1942, per season and in an annual map of averages. __TK2 (Page 15) compares: •
the winter quarter (D/J/F/) of 1940, 1941, and 1942
with the three winter quarters before WWII, 1937, 1938, and
1939 •
the winter (DJF) and annual temperature data during the following
three periods since 1881, ·
The global warming phase 1881-1939, not showing the
special warming phase in the Northern Hemisphere from 1919 to 1939. ·
The global cooling phase from 1940 until the
mid-1970s; ·
The warming phase, which can be assessed as a
continuation of the previous phase, but is interrupted by WW2. It seems: The entire Northern
Hemisphere is sweating due to excessive warming during the first three
war winters (TM2), only Europe is covered by an arctic cold spell,
while the c. From low to
heavy ice cover in the Baltic An
interesting piece of prima facie evidence for naval war contribution
is the sea ice cover issue in the Baltic, and the duration of the sea
ice. But particularly stunning is the fact, already mentioned in
Chapter B that the first war winter came up for the first time after
57 years with a full ice cover throughout the Baltic. This had not
happened since 1883. The icing was severe, sometimes double or even
much thicker than usual. This severity presumably has something to do
not only with the very low air temperatures since December 20th,
but also with the fact that the sea has been deprived of heat to a
higher extent as would have been the case without naval warfare.
Together with the two following winters the naval war generated sea
ice conditions, which presumably had been unique for the entire Little
Ice Age (LIA) period based on following consideration: The sea ice conditions in the Baltic depend primarily
on three factors: ·
Air temperatures, ·
The time duration of low air
temperatures, and ·
The heat reserve available from the
moment the air temperatures are so low that the top sea layer can
freeze to ice. During the last 500 years there had been three types
of winter scenarios in the Baltic: 1.
The pre industrial period during
the LIA, 2.
The period since motor ships
navigate the sea, and 3.
Two
periods during which manmade activities increased for a short period
of time by many times, with a high increase of interchange between
several sea water layers. The
different types influenced the duration of the ice cover during the
winter in question, and also the conditions in the next winter. The
Baltic may freeze quickly if the air temperatures are low (scenario
1), but that tells nothing about the heat that is still available. As
soon as the sea is covered with ice any further heat transfer from the
sea water body to the atmosphere decreases to a very small percentage.
The heat capacity is still substantial if the temperature is below 5
degrees, which will eventually reduce the icing period, and influence
next years sea ice season. Since
propeller driven vessels navigate the sea the natural sea icing
process in the Baltic got more and more affected. One needs only to
investigate the higher increase of winter air temperatures, and a
shortening of the winter season in the region observed during the last
century. But to know, to explain, and to observe this is a task of
HELCOM[1],
or the numerous scientific institutions mandated and financed to
undertake scientific research in the Baltic. As
it is difficult to recognize the influence of shipping and other sea
uses over a period of 150 years, the two World Wars, which came along
very suddenly, fiercely, and pronounced, as reflected by the full sea
ice cover in early 1940. It became the prelude of the unprecedented
heavy sea ice decade of the 1940s. In a world which had been getting
warmer since 1850, not only the sudden severity of sea ice conditions
in winter 1939/40, but also the fact that it is presumably the
severest sea ice condition within one decade for more than a thousand
years (Fig. B-18 & B-19, p. 37f), is by itself a prima facie
evidence of naval war as a contributing factor. d. The sudden end of a two decade increased warming With
WWII in action a strong warming period in the This
trend suddenly died away in close timing with the first war winter in
the Second World War. It was a deeply marked shift not only in The
study of anthropogenic climate change requires that all elements of
this causal chain are examined for their relevance, either to confirm
the participation of individual elements, or to prove that they have
not contributed. This includes the naval warfare in the f. Summary One
winter can make a big difference in climate research. The winter
1939/40 gives proof of it. Four months at war, and as the parties
involved in the war have demonstrated that man is able to change
weather. As soon as the belligerent and neutral powers had sent their
entire naval forces on missions in European and Atlantic waters, Numerous
alterations of weather conditions during the first six months of the
Second World War came unexpectedly. The meteorological services failed
thoroughly. Completely unaware of the fact that weather operates on
the prevailing conditions of the ocean and seas, they did not foresee
the inevitable danger of anthropogenic weather modification by naval
war activities. They did not imagine that large scale fighting at sea
by huge naval armadas during an autumn season in sensible sea areas
with instable conditions is a perfect experimental tool. Numerous
examples could be presented and discussed, in order to prove these
facts. It
starts with the suddenness, unexpectedness and the severity of the
winter 1939/40, about which the two expert contemporary witnesses, Drummond and Rodewald,
made some comments. Their personal impressions are confirmed by many
astonishing facts. There was the heavy rain between There
are stunning surprises for a number of issues. But nothing is on
record about what science has to say about all of this. Most of the
observed deviations could have been predicted if the weather experts
at that time had regarded that weather is an appendix of the ocean, or
at least have analysed the impact of naval war during WWI on the war
weather pattern in depth (Chapter I). With such knowledge they could
and should have warned the world leaders before WWII was to start that
a war would indefinitely include a serious interference and experiment
with climate. They
did not. The weather experts were neither aware of anything regarding
this aspect, nor did they at least wake up when a lot of
meteorological events happened within a short period of time into the
war. But what do we see now, 70 years later. Climatology calls the
world at doom due to the threat of anthropogenic global warming (AGW)
over the last two decades. At least 5°Celsius temperature, and
several meters sea level rise, caused by the industrial release of
carbon dioxide gases, is inevitable, so they warn the governments and
the general public. For certain, if such a scenario of threat and doom had existed before the Second World War started, the world in 1939 would have listened, and undertaken all possible measures to prevent Adolf Hitler and the Third Reich from using the sea for naval warfare. Furthermore, a discussion about the ‘greenhouse effect’ since the ‘global cooling’ ended in the early 1980s, would never have taken place. But unfortunately the weather experts understood too little of what it was all about. They were not even keen enough to analyze and learn from what they saw with their own eyes. On the meteorological front two further extreme winters followed. Thus they failed to do better during the following five years the world was at war. However a global cooling continued toward cold conditions for another three decades. [1]
HELCOM
- The Helsinki Commission - is the governing body of the
"Convention on the Protection of the Marine Environment of
the Baltic Sea Area". HELCOM, works to protect the marine
environment of the Baltic Sea from all sources of pollution
through intergovernmental co-operation between HOME,
ToC
A1,
A2,
A3,
B,
C1,
C2,
C3,
C4,
C5,
C6,
C7,
C8,
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